Racing Montevideo 54%Draw 27%Cerro Largo 18%Expected goals 1.52 – 0.76
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✓54% · @1.78
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓82% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.13
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Cerro Largo are 15th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Racing Montevideo, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Penarol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Cerro Largo, last 5: LWLDD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Penarol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Racing Montevideo, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Cerro Largo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.5 xG, Cerro Largo 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 54%, draw 27%, Cerro Largo 18%.
Lower-risk option: Racing Montevideo or draw (82%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Cerro Largo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Montevideo54%fair 1.83 · @1.78
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @3.20
Cerro Largo18%fair 5.41 · @4.60
2.28Expected goals
1.52Racing Montevideo xG
0.76Cerro Largo xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.5 – 0.8 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+9%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.47
0.73
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✓
54%
1.83
1.78
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Racing Montevideo (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Cerro Largo +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Racing Montevideo to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✓
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.13
–
Recent results
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerro Largo – last 6
LWLDDL
12 May
vs Penarol
2–3
L
3 May
@ Progreso
1–0
W
20 Apr
@ Boston River
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Cerro
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Albion FC
2–2
D
25 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cerro Largo 18%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
