Liverpool Montevideo 38%Draw 28%Racing Montevideo 33%Expected goals 1.27 – 1.00
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 2.78 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗38% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.03
Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Racing Montevideo travel to face Liverpool Montevideo on Friday 22 May in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Belvedere the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Racing Montevideo are 6th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: LLWDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Wanderers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Racing Montevideo, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cerro Largo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Racing Montevideo, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Liverpool Montevideo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.3 xG, Racing Montevideo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 38%, draw 28%, Racing Montevideo 33%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Liverpool Montevideo to win @2.78 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Racing Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool Montevideo38%fair 2.61 · @2.78
Draw28%fair 3.53 · @3.00
Racing Montevideo33%fair 2.99 · @2.52
2.27Expected goals
1.27Liverpool Montevideo xG
1.00Racing Montevideo xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.3 – 1.0 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+15%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
-12%
Our expected goals here
1.29
0.81
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
38%
2.61
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.93
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Racing Montevideo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.03
–
Recent results
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
LLWDDD
8 May
@ Wanderers
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Club Nacional
1–3
L
14 Apr
@ Penarol
2–0
W
31 Mar
@ Progreso
3–3
D
24 Mar
vs Central Espanol
3–3
D
17 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WWDWLW
17 May
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool Montevideo and Racing Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Racing Montevideo 33%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
