Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Tropezón to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTropezón to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceTropezón or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.32
Tropezón vs Guarnizo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 24 May the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 brings Tropezón against Guarnizo. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Tropezón are 1st, leading the league, on 26 points after 10 matches; Guarnizo are 13th (lower half) with 8. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tropezón, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Guarnizo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Guarnizo, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Tropezón, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Guarnizo, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Tropezón.
Head to head
When they last met (17 May 2026) it ended Guarnizo 0–0 Tropezón.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tropezón 1.7 xG, Guarnizo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tropezón 58%, draw 26%, Guarnizo 17%.
Lower-risk option: Tropezón or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Tropezón to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tropezón or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tropezón 1–0 Guarnizo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tropezón58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.00
Guarnizo17%fair 6.04 · @3.70
2.37Expected goals
1.69Tropezón xG
0.68Guarnizo xG
45%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Tropezón 1.7 – 0.7 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Tropezón or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Tropezón have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guarnizo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Tropezón 1–0 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
Tropezón vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
