Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultGuinea to win ✓64% · @1.67
Double chanceGuinea or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.71
Guinea vs Kenya: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Thursday 1 October: Guinea v Kenya in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification, played at Stade 28 Septembre. In the table, Guinea are 3rd on 9 points after 6 matches; Kenya are 3rd with 6. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Guinea, last 4: LLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to South Africa, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Kenya, last 4: DWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Eritrea, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Kenya, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.3 for Guinea.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guinea 1.8 xG, Kenya 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guinea 64%, draw 22%, Kenya 13%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Guinea to win (64%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.55, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guinea 1–0 Kenya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guinea64%fair 1.55 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.00
Kenya13%fair 7.47 · @5.50
2.50Expected goals
1.81Guinea xG
0.69Kenya xG
47%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Guinea 1.8 – 0.7 Kenya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guinea to win✓
64%
1.55
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Guinea or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.44
Draw no bet
Guinea (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Guinea -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Guinea to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Guinea ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guinea / FT Guinea✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.71
–
Recent results
Guinea – last 4
LLLD
26 Sep
@ South Africa
1–2
L
4 Jun
@ Northern Ireland
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Benin
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Togo
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Kenya – last 4
DWDW
26 Sep
vs Eritrea
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Lesotho
4–0
W
4 Jun
@ Lesotho
1–1
D
30 Mar
@ Grenada
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guinea and Kenya.
Our pick is Guinea to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Guinea vs Kenya?
On our numbers Guinea have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kenya 13%.
How many goals will there be in Guinea vs Kenya?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guinea vs Kenya?
Our predicted score is Guinea 1–0 Kenya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Guinea vs Kenya?
Guinea vs Kenya (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade 28 Septembre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
