Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 – our chance 65% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNaft to win ✓38% · @2.20
Double chanceNaft or draw ✓69% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.67
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.40
Naft vs Newroz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 1 June the Iraqi League brings Naft against Newroz. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Naft are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 13 matches; Newroz are 2nd (among the top four) with 26. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Naft, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Al Zawra'a, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Newroz, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mosul, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Newroz, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.2 for Naft.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Naft 0.9 xG, Newroz 0.9 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Naft 38%, draw 31%, Newroz 31%.
Lower-risk option: Naft or draw (69%) at 1.28.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.67 – the bookmaker implies 60%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Naft or draw (69%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Naft 0–0 Newroz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Naft38%fair 2.64 · @2.20
Draw31%fair 3.18 · @3.00
Newroz31%fair 3.27 · @3.10
1.80Expected goals
0.95Naft xG
0.86Newroz xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–016%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Naft 0.9 – 0.9 Newroz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naft to win✓
38%
2.64
2.20
Double chance
Naft or draw✓
69%
1.44
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
–
Draw no bet
Naft (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Newroz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.67 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Naft to score first✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.40
–
Recent results
Naft – last 6
WDDDDL
27 May
@ Al Zawra'a
1–0
W
19 May
vs Duhok
1–1
D
14 May
vs Al Minaa Basra
1–1
D
5 May
vs Al-Karma
0–0
D
22 Apr
@ Mosul
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Erbil
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Newroz – last 6
DWWWDW
27 May
vs Mosul
1–1
D
20 May
vs Zakho
2–1
W
27 Apr
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Al Minaa Basra
4–1
W
8 Apr
vs Al Karkh
0–0
D
31 Mar
vs Naft Maysan
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft and Newroz.
Our pick is Naft or draw with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Naft vs Newroz?
On our numbers Naft have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Newroz 31%.
How many goals will there be in Naft vs Newroz?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft vs Newroz?
Our predicted score is Naft 0–0 Newroz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Naft vs Newroz?
Naft vs Newroz (Iraqi League) kicks off on Monday 1 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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