Liverpool Montevideo 56%Draw 26%Cerro Largo 18%Expected goals 1.58 – 0.68
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 1.88 – our chance 56% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗56% · @1.88
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Monday 8 June: Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro Largo in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Belvedere. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Cerro Largo are 15th (in the drop zone) with 9. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Boston River, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Cerro Largo, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cerro, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Liverpool Montevideo 2–0 Cerro Largo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 xG, Cerro Largo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 56%, draw 26%, Cerro Largo 18%.
Lower-risk option: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (82%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Liverpool Montevideo to win @1.88 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool Montevideo56%fair 1.77 · @1.88
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.30
Cerro Largo18%fair 5.70 · @3.95
2.27Expected goals
1.58Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.68Cerro Largo xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 – 0.7 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+15%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.55
0.58
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
56%
1.77
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.93
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Cerro Largo +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first✗
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cerro Largo 18%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 8 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
