Referencia U20 62%Draw 25%Mauá U20 13%Expected goals 1.81 – 0.71
62%
Betarazi pick
Referencia U20 to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultReferencia U20 to win ✓62% · @1.67
Double chanceReferencia U20 or draw ✓87% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.87
Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Referencia U20 v Mauá U20 in the Paulista U20. In the table, Referencia U20 are 15th, in the drop zone, on 0 points after 2 matches; Mauá U20 are 11th (lower half) with 1. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Referencia U20, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Tanabi SP U20, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Mauá U20, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Capivariano U20, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Referencia U20, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Mauá U20.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Referencia U20 1.8 xG, Mauá U20 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Referencia U20 62%, draw 25%, Mauá U20 13%.
Lower-risk option: Referencia U20 or draw (87%) at 1.14.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Referencia U20 to win (62%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.61, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Referencia U20 1–0 Mauá U20. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Referencia U2062%fair 1.61 · @1.67
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.60
Mauá U2013%fair 7.88 · @4.33
2.52Expected goals
1.81Referencia U20 xG
0.71Mauá U20 xG
45%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Referencia U20 1.8 – 0.7 Mauá U20 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Referencia U20 to win✓
62%
1.61
1.67
Double chance
Referencia U20 or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
–
Draw no bet
Referencia U20 (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Referencia U20 -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Referencia U20 to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Referencia U20 ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Referencia U20 / FT Referencia U20✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.87
–
Recent results
Referencia U20 – last 6
WLWLLL
4 Sep
@ Tanabi SP U20
2–0
W
21 Aug
vs Palmeiras U20
0–2
L
14 Aug
vs Sfera U20
1–0
W
11 Aug
@ XV de Jaú U20
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Osasco Audax U20
0–3
L
31 Jul
vs Guarani U20
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mauá U20 – last 6
LLLWLL
4 Sep
vs Capivariano U20
0–1
L
21 Aug
@ RB Bragantino U20
0–4
L
14 Aug
vs Osasco Audax U20
0–5
L
11 Aug
@ Porto Football U20
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Palmeiras U20
0–2
L
24 Jul
vs Flamengo SP U20
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Referencia U20 and Mauá U20.
What is the prediction for Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20?
Our pick is Referencia U20 to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20?
On our numbers Referencia U20 have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mauá U20 13%.
How many goals will there be in Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20?
Our predicted score is Referencia U20 1–0 Mauá U20, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20?
Referencia U20 vs Mauá U20 (Paulista U20) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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