Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓62% · @1.51
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓82% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.21
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportes Tolima travel to face Independiente del Valle on Wednesday 26 August in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Banco Guayaquil the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT. In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 13 points after 6 matches; Deportes Tolima are 2nd with 8.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Leones del Norte, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Deportes Tolima, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Bucaramanga, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.2 for Deportes Tolima.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Aug 2026) it ended Deportes Tolima 0–1 Independiente del Valle.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 1.6 xG, Deportes Tolima 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 62%, draw 20%, Deportes Tolima 18%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Deportes Tolima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle62%fair 1.61 · @1.51
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.90
Deportes Tolima18%fair 5.58 · @6.60
2.29Expected goals
1.61Independiente del Valle xG
0.68Deportes Tolima xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.6 – 0.7 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
62%
1.61
1.51
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Deportes Tolima +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportes Tolima 18%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
