Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Istra 1961 to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIstra 1961 to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceIstra 1961 or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.04
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Saturday 19 September: Istra 1961 v HNK Gorica in the HNL, played at Stadion Aldo Drosina. In the table, Istra 1961 are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 13 matches; HNK Gorica are 10th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Istra 1961, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Rudes, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
HNK Gorica, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with NK Varazdin, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Istra 1961, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for HNK Gorica.
Head to head
When they last met (27 Apr 2026) it ended HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961. The last 2 head-to-heads: Istra 1961 0 wins, HNK Gorica 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 1.5 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Istra 1961 2.0 xG, HNK Gorica 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Istra 1961 60%, draw 23%, HNK Gorica 17%.
Lower-risk option: Istra 1961 or draw (83%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Istra 1961 to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Istra 1961 or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Istra 1961 2–0 HNK Gorica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Istra 196160%fair 1.66 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.40
HNK Gorica17%fair 5.94 · @3.80
3.00Expected goals
2.01Istra 1961 xG
0.99HNK Gorica xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Istra 1961 2.0 – 1.0 HNK Gorica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Our pick is Istra 1961 or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
On our numbers Istra 1961 have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and HNK Gorica 17%.
How many goals will there be in Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Our predicted score is Istra 1961 2–0 HNK Gorica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica (HNL) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Aldo Drosina.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
