Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: Cusco to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCusco to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceCusco or draw ✗81% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Cusco vs FBC Melgar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 12 September the Primera División brings Cusco against FBC Melgar at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Kick-off: 01:00 WAT. In the table, Cusco are 10th, lower half, on 24 points after 16 matches; FBC Melgar are 5th (upper half) with 29.
Current form
Cusco, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over UCV Moquegua, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
FBC Melgar, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over ADT, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Cusco, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for FBC Melgar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cusco 1.9 xG, FBC Melgar 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cusco 60%, draw 21%, FBC Melgar 19%.
Lower-risk option: Cusco or draw (81%) at 1.29.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Cusco to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cusco or draw (81%, odds 1.29 – longer than our fair 1.24, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cusco 1–0 FBC Melgar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cusco60%fair 1.66 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.25
FBC Melgar19%fair 5.24 · @3.60
2.90Expected goals
1.93Cusco xG
0.97FBC Melgar xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Cusco 1.9 – 1.0 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cusco to win✗
60%
1.66
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Cusco or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.65
Draw no bet
Cusco (draw no bet)✗
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Cusco to score first✗
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Cusco ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cusco / FT Cusco✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
Cusco – last 6
WWLWLW
6 Sep
vs UCV Moquegua
2–0
W
31 Aug
@ Cienciano
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–4
L
15 Aug
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
7 Aug
@ Comerciantes Unidos
1–3
L
2 Aug
vs UTC Cajamarca
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 6
WLDWLD
7 Sep
vs ADT
3–0
W
1 Sep
@ Atletico Grau
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Alianza Lima
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3–0
W
9 Aug
vs FC Cajamarca
2–4
L
2 Aug
@ UCV Moquegua
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cusco and FBC Melgar.
Our pick is Cusco or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Cusco have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FBC Melgar 19%.
How many goals will there be in Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Cusco 1–0 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
Cusco vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
