Value bet: Alianza Lima to win @ 3.20 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCusco to win ✗43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.47
Cusco vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 12 October the Primera División brings Cusco against Alianza Lima at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Cusco are 10th, lower half, on 24 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29.
Current form
Cusco, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over FC Cajamarca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Alianza Lima, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Palestino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Cusco, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Alianza Lima.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Apr 2026) it ended Alianza Lima 8–0 Cusco.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cusco 1.4 xG, Alianza Lima 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cusco 43%, draw 24%, Alianza Lima 33%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Alianza Lima to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cusco 1–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cusco43%fair 2.35 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.00
Alianza Lima33%fair 3.01 · @3.20
2.59Expected goals
1.39Cusco xG
1.20Alianza Lima xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Cusco 1.4 – 1.2 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Cusco have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima 33%.
How many goals will there be in Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Cusco 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
Cusco vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
