Value bet: Popayan to win @ 3.30 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPopayan to win ✗38% · @3.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.49
Orsomarso vs Popayan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Orsomarso welcome Popayan to Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata for a Primera B fixture on Monday 12 October (21:30 WAT). In the table, Orsomarso are 13th, in the drop zone, on 17 points after 15 matches; Popayan are 2nd (among the top four) with 7.
Current form
Orsomarso, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Quindio, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Popayan, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Union Magdalena, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Popayan, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.3 for Orsomarso.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Feb 2026) it ended Popayan 2–2 Orsomarso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Orsomarso 1.1 xG, Popayan 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Orsomarso 38%, draw 24%, Popayan 38%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Popayan to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.83, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Orsomarso 1–1 Popayan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Orsomarso38%fair 2.65 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.90
Popayan38%fair 2.63 · @3.30
2.21Expected goals
1.10Orsomarso xG
1.11Popayan xG
55%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Orsomarso 1.1 – 1.1 Popayan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Orsomarso vs Popayan?
On our numbers Orsomarso have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Popayan 38%.
How many goals will there be in Orsomarso vs Popayan?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orsomarso vs Popayan?
Our predicted score is Orsomarso 1–1 Popayan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Orsomarso vs Popayan?
Orsomarso vs Popayan (Primera B) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
