Value bet: Popayan to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPopayan to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.94
Leones FC vs Popayan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 19 September the Primera B brings Leones FC against Popayan at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui. Kick-off: 21:30 WAT. In the table, Leones FC are 16th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 15 matches; Popayan are 2nd (among the top four) with 7.
Current form
Leones FC, last 5: DLLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Envigado, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Popayan, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Real Santander, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones FC 1.1 xG, Popayan 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones FC 37%, draw 25%, Popayan 39%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Popayan to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.79, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones FC 1–1 Popayan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones FC37%fair 2.73 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @2.75
Popayan39%fair 2.59 · @3.10
2.29Expected goals
1.13Leones FC xG
1.16Popayan xG
56%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Leones FC 1.1 – 1.2 Popayan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Popayan to win✓
39%
2.59
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Popayan (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Leones FC +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Popayan to score first✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Popayan / FT Popayan✓
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.94
–
Recent results
Leones FC – last 6
DLLLDW
12 Sep
@ Envigado
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Depor FC
0–3
L
28 Aug
@ Ind. Yumbo
0–1
L
24 Aug
vs Real Cartagena
1–6
L
20 Aug
vs Real Cundinamarca
1–1
D
6 Aug
@ Bogota FC
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Popayan – last 6
WDLLLD
13 Sep
vs Real Santander
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Envigado
2–2
D
1 Sep
@ Barranquilla
1–2
L
25 Aug
vs Bogota FC
1–2
L
6 Aug
@ Real Soacha
1–3
L
1 Aug
vs Tigres FC
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones FC and Popayan.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Leones FC vs Popayan?
On our numbers Leones FC have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Popayan 39%.
How many goals will there be in Leones FC vs Popayan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones FC vs Popayan?
Our predicted score is Leones FC 1–1 Popayan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Leones FC vs Popayan?
Leones FC vs Popayan (Primera B) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
