Value bet: Real Cartagena to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUnion Magdalena to win ✗39% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.17
Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Wednesday 30 September: Union Magdalena v Real Cartagena in the Primera B, played at Estadio Sierra Nevada. In the table, Union Magdalena are 3rd, among the top four, on 4 points after 4 matches; Real Cartagena are 3rd (among the top four) with 4. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Union Magdalena, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Santa Fe, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Real Cartagena, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Envigado, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Real Cartagena, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Union Magdalena.
Head to head
When they last met (12 May 2026) it ended Union Magdalena 3–0 Real Cartagena. The last 3 head-to-heads: Union Magdalena 1 win, Real Cartagena 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Union Magdalena 1.3 xG, Real Cartagena 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Union Magdalena 39%, draw 24%, Real Cartagena 36%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Real Cartagena to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Union Magdalena 1–1 Real Cartagena. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Union Magdalena39%fair 2.55 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.90
Real Cartagena36%fair 2.74 · @3.00
2.51Expected goals
1.28Union Magdalena xG
1.23Real Cartagena xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Union Magdalena 1.3 – 1.2 Real Cartagena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
On our numbers Union Magdalena have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real Cartagena 36%.
How many goals will there be in Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
Our predicted score is Union Magdalena 1–1 Real Cartagena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena (Primera B) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Sierra Nevada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
