Independiente Medellin v Millonarios Prediction & Expected Goals (30 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗42% · @2.15

Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.73

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Millonarios travel to face Independiente Medellin on Wednesday 30 September in the Primera A, with Estadio Atanasio Girardot the venue – the ball rolls at 02:05 WAT. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Millonarios are 7th (upper half) with 27. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Independiente Medellin, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Junior, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Millonarios, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico Nacional, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 1.4 xG, Millonarios 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 42%, draw 22%, Millonarios 37%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Millonarios to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Millonarios. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Independiente Medellin42%fair 2.41 · @2.15

Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.30

Millonarios37%fair 2.72 · @3.00

2.65Expected goals

1.38Independiente Medellin xG

1.27Millonarios xG

59%Both score

49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–010%

0–19%

2–19%

1–28%

0–07%

From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.4 – 1.3 Millonarios expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Independiente Medellin to win ✗	42%	2.41	2.15
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	78%	1.28	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	59%	1.70	1.73
Draw no bet	Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)	53%	1.88	–
Asian handicap	Millonarios +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	51%	1.98	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	73%	1.38	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
First team to score	Independiente Medellin to score first	48%	2.07	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	43%	2.34	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin ✗	23%	4.37	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.73	–

Independiente Medellin – last 6

LWDLWW

27 Sep	@ Junior	0–2	L
23 Sep	vs Jaguares	2–1	W
18 Sep	@ Bucaramanga	2–2	D
13 Sep	@ Chico	1–2	L
10 Sep	@ Deportivo Pasto	4–1	W
4 Sep	@ Deportivo Pereira	3–0	W

2.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Millonarios – last 6

DWWDDL

25 Sep	@ Atletico Nacional	1–1	D
19 Sep	vs Chico	3–0	W
14 Sep	@ Cucuta	2–1	W
11 Sep	vs Deportivo Cali	1–1	D
7 Sep	@ Deportivo Pereira	1–1	D
3 Sep	@ Santa Fe	2–3	L

1.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

83%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Primera A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	-17	10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.

Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Millonarios 37%.

How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Millonarios, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Independiente Medellin v Millonarios: numbers & prediction