Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.76 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓62% · @1.76
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.47
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Pereira welcome Independiente Medellin to Santiago de las Atalayas for a Primera A fixture on Friday 4 September (02:00 WAT). In the table, Deportivo Pereira are 17th, lower half, on 17 points after 18 matches; Independiente Medellin are 6th (upper half) with 29. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportivo Pereira, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Deportivo Pasto, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Llaneros, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Independiente Medellin, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Deportivo Pereira.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended Independiente Medellin 1–1 Deportivo Pereira.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Pereira 0.8 xG, Independiente Medellin 1.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Pereira 17%, draw 20%, Independiente Medellin 62%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente Medellin or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Independiente Medellin to win @1.76 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Pereira17%fair 5.72 · @4.55
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.55
Independiente Medellin62%fair 1.60 · @1.76
2.56Expected goals
0.78Deportivo Pereira xG
1.78Independiente Medellin xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pereira 0.8 – 1.8 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
62%
1.60
1.76 ▲
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✓
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Deportivo Pereira have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Independiente Medellin 62%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Santiago de las Atalayas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
