Atletico Nacional 61%Draw 22%Deportes Tolima 17%Expected goals 1.78 – 0.81
61%
Betarazi pick
Atletico Nacional to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗61% · @1.62
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Nacional welcome Deportes Tolima to Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí for a Primera A fixture on Friday 9 October (00:05 WAT). In the table, Atletico Nacional are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 18 matches; Deportes Tolima are 9th (upper half) with 26. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Nacional, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Junior, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Deportes Tolima, last 5: DDDLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Chico, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Atletico Nacional, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Deportes Tolima.
Head to head
When they last met (24 May 2026) it ended Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima. The last 3 head-to-heads: Atletico Nacional 2 wins, Deportes Tolima 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 1.8 xG, Deportes Tolima 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 61%, draw 22%, Deportes Tolima 17%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Nacional or draw (83%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Nacional to win (61%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Nacional61%fair 1.64 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.60
Deportes Tolima17%fair 5.88 · @5.00
2.59Expected goals
1.78Atletico Nacional xG
0.81Deportes Tolima xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.8 – 0.8 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportes Tolima 17%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 00:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
