Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓90% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.97
Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Jaguares travel to face Independiente Medellin on Wednesday 23 September in the Primera A, with Estadio Atanasio Girardot the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Jaguares are 19th (in the drop zone) with 13. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Bucaramanga, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Jaguares, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Fortaleza FC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Independiente Medellin, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Jaguares.
Head to head
When they last met (16 Mar 2026) it ended Jaguares 1–2 Independiente Medellin.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 2.2 xG, Jaguares 0.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 72%, draw 17%, Jaguares 10%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente Medellin to win (72%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 2–0 Jaguares. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin72%fair 1.38 · @1.30
Draw17%fair 5.74 · @4.80
Jaguares10%fair 9.91 · @9.00
2.80Expected goals
2.15Independiente Medellin xG
0.65Jaguares xG
54%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 2.2 – 0.6 Jaguares expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.91
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin -1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
Our pick is Independiente Medellin to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Jaguares 10%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 2–0 Jaguares, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
