Atletico Nacional 65%Draw 20%Millonarios 16%Expected goals 1.93 – 0.80
84%
Betarazi pick
Atletico Nacional or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 1.75 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗65% · @1.75
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 25 September the Primera A brings Atletico Nacional against Millonarios at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Atletico Nacional are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 18 matches; Millonarios are 7th (upper half) with 27. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Nacional, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Llaneros, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Millonarios, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Chico, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico Nacional, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Millonarios.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Mar 2026) it ended Millonarios 3–0 Atletico Nacional. The last 2 head-to-heads: Atletico Nacional 0 wins, Millonarios 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 1.9 xG, Millonarios 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 65%, draw 20%, Millonarios 16%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Nacional or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Atletico Nacional to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Nacional or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Millonarios. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Nacional65%fair 1.55 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @3.60
Millonarios16%fair 6.36 · @4.00
2.73Expected goals
1.93Atletico Nacional xG
0.80Millonarios xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.9 – 0.8 Millonarios expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Millonarios 16%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Millonarios, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
