Independiente Medellin 40%Draw 23%Santa Fe 37%Expected goals 1.38 – 1.32
61%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Santa Fe to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.80
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santa Fe travel to face Independiente Medellin on Tuesday 6 October in the Primera A, with Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Santa Fe are 5th (upper half) with 31. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: DLWDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Millonarios, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Santa Fe, last 5: WDLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Deportivo Pereira, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (23 Mar 2026) it ended Santa Fe 2–1 Independiente Medellin.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 1.4 xG, Santa Fe 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 40%, draw 23%, Santa Fe 37%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Santa Fe to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Santa Fe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin40%fair 2.50 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.10
Santa Fe37%fair 2.71 · @3.10
2.70Expected goals
1.38Independiente Medellin xG
1.32Santa Fe xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.4 – 1.3 Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✗
40%
2.50
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Santa Fe +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santa Fe 37%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe (Primera A) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
