Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Expected Goals (23 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓70% · @1.25

Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓91% · @1.04

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 6.90

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Atletico Nacional welcome Deportivo Pasto to Estadio Atanasio Girardot for a Primera A fixture on Friday 23 October (02:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico Nacional are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 18 matches; Deportivo Pasto are 18th (in the drop zone) with 15. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Atletico Nacional, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cucuta, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Deportivo Pasto, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Alianza Valledupar, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Atletico Nacional, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto.

Head to head

When they last met (30 Mar 2026) it ended Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico Nacional.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 2.0 xG, Deportivo Pasto 0.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 70%, draw 22%, Deportivo Pasto 9%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Atletico Nacional to win (70%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atletico Nacional70%fair 1.44 · @1.25

Draw22%fair 4.65 · @5.00

Deportivo Pasto9%fair 11.16 · @12.00

2.67Expected goals

2.05Atletico Nacional xG

0.62Deportivo Pasto xG

50%Both score

50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–014%

1–014%

3–010%

2–19%

1–19%

0–07%

From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 2.0 – 0.6 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atletico Nacional to win ✓	70%	1.44	1.25
Double chance	Atletico Nacional or draw ✓	91%	1.10	1.04
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	50%	2.00	1.62
Draw no bet	Atletico Nacional (draw no bet) ✓	89%	1.13	–
Asian handicap	Atletico Nacional -1 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.34	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	50%	2.00	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	72%	1.39	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
First team to score	Atletico Nacional to score first ✓	71%	1.40	–
Half-time result	Atletico Nacional ahead at half-time ✓	50%	2.00	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional ✓	46%	2.16	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–0 ✗	14%	6.90	–

Atletico Nacional – last 6

LWWDWD

21 Oct	@ Cucuta	0–1	L
17 Oct	@ Chico	4–1	W
15 Oct	vs Independiente Medellin	3–2	W
9 Oct	vs Deportes Tolima	0–0	D
1 Oct	vs Junior	3–1	W
26 Sep	vs Chapecoense-sc	1–1	D

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Deportivo Pasto – last 6

LDLWWL

20 Oct	vs Alianza Valledupar	0–1	L
4 Oct	vs Fortaleza FC	0–0	D
26 Sep	@ Chico	0–3	L
20 Sep	vs Once Caldas	1–0	W
15 Sep	@ America de Cali	1–0	W
10 Sep	vs Independiente Medellin	1–4	L

0.5Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

17%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Primera A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	-17	10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Our pick is Atletico Nacional to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Pasto 9%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto: numbers & prediction