Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAC Milan to win ✓66% · @1.37
Double chanceAC Milan or draw ✓85% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.50
AC Milan vs Venezia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Venezia travel to face AC Milan on Friday 28 August in the Serie A, with San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, AC Milan are 4th, among the top four, on 24 points after 11 matches; Venezia are 19th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
AC Milan, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Torino, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Venezia, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Lecce, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 3.2 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AC Milan 1.9 xG, Venezia 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AC Milan 66%, draw 18%, Venezia 15%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: AC Milan 2–0 Venezia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AC Milan66%fair 1.50 · @1.37
Draw18%fair 5.43 · @4.65
Venezia15%fair 6.62 · @8.10
2.64Expected goals
1.91AC Milan xG
0.74Venezia xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: AC Milan 1.9 – 0.7 Venezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✓
66%
1.50
1.37
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
AC Milan (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
AC Milan -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.13
First team to score
AC Milan to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
AC Milan ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.50
–
Recent results
AC Milan – last 6
WWLDDL
23 Aug
@ Torino
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Manchester United
4–2
W
8 Aug
@ Chelsea
0–3
L
5 Aug
vs Inter
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Celtic
2–2
D
24 May
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Venezia – last 6
LWDLWW
23 Aug
vs Lecce
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Modena
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Saint Etienne
3–4
L
27 Jul
@ Galatasaray
3–0
W
23 Jul
vs Vis Pesaro
8–0
W
3.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AC Milan and Venezia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AC Milan vs Venezia?
On our numbers AC Milan have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Venezia 15%.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Venezia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Venezia?
Our predicted score is AC Milan 2–0 Venezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is AC Milan vs Venezia?
AC Milan vs Venezia (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
