Venezia 40%Draw 23%Fiorentina 38%Expected goals 1.61 – 1.56
61%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
1
Value bet: Venezia to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVenezia to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.81
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Venezia welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo for a Serie A fixture on Friday 11 September (19:45 WAT). In the table, Venezia are 19th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 11 matches; Fiorentina are 15th (lower half) with 9. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Venezia, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Frosinone, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Fiorentina, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Torino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Venezia 1.6 xG, Fiorentina 1.6 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Venezia 40%, draw 23%, Fiorentina 38%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Venezia to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Venezia 1–1 Fiorentina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Venezia40%fair 2.53 · @2.90
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.25
Fiorentina38%fair 2.65 · @2.30
3.17Expected goals
1.61Venezia xG
1.56Fiorentina xG
61%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Venezia 1.6 – 1.6 Fiorentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venezia to win✗
40%
2.53
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Draw no bet
Venezia (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Fiorentina +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Venezia to score first
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venezia / FT Venezia✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.81
–
Recent results
Venezia – last 6
LLLLWD
6 Sep
@ Frosinone
2–3
L
2 Sep
@ Udinese
1–2
L
28 Aug
@ AC Milan
0–2
L
23 Aug
vs Lecce
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Modena
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fiorentina – last 6
LLLWDD
5 Sep
vs Torino
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Frosinone
0–3
L
24 Aug
@ AS Roma
0–4
L
14 Aug
vs Benevento
4–1
W
6 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Real Madrid
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Venezia and Fiorentina.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
On our numbers Venezia have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fiorentina 38%.
How many goals will there be in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our predicted score is Venezia 1–1 Fiorentina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Venezia vs Fiorentina (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
