Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.52 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.52Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓64% · @1.52
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓84% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Toluca vs Necaxa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:10 WAT, Monday 3 August: Toluca v Necaxa in the Liga MX. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; Necaxa are 17th (in the drop zone) with 13. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Cruz Azul, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Necaxa, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Monterrey, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Necaxa, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Toluca.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Feb 2026) it ended Necaxa 0–3 Toluca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.1 xG, Necaxa 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 64%, draw 20%, Necaxa 16%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (84%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Toluca to win (64%, odds 1.52). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–0 Necaxa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca64%fair 1.56 · @1.52
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @4.35
Necaxa16%fair 6.27 · @5.50
3.09Expected goals
2.14Toluca xG
0.95Necaxa xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.1 – 0.9 Necaxa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
Necaxa
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
-26%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
+7%
Our expected goals here
2.24
0.96
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Toluca vs Necaxa?
On our numbers Toluca have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Necaxa 16%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Necaxa?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Necaxa?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–0 Necaxa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Necaxa?
Toluca vs Necaxa (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 3 August 2026 at 02:10 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
