Value bet: Leon to win @ 2.64 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeon to win ✗41% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.01
Atlante FC vs Leon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atlante FC welcome Leon to Estadio Banorte for a Liga MX fixture on Saturday 29 August (02:00 WAT).
Current form
Atlante FC, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Tigres UANL, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Leon, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Real Salt Lake, at home. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Leon, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.2 for Atlante FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlante FC 1.3 xG, Leon 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlante FC 38%, draw 21%, Leon 41%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Leon to win @2.64 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlante FC 1–1 Leon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlante FC38%fair 2.63 · @2.46
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.50
Leon41%fair 2.46 · @2.64
2.59Expected goals
1.27Atlante FC xG
1.32Leon xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atlante FC 1.3 – 1.3 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✗
41%
2.46
2.64 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.62
Draw no bet
Leon (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Atlante FC +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.13
First team to score
Leon to score first
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.01
–
Recent results
Atlante FC – last 6
LDLLWW
22 Aug
@ Tigres UANL
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Toluca
0–0
D
12 Aug
@ Minnesota United FC
1–3
L
9 Aug
@ Real Salt Lake
0–4
L
5 Aug
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
1–0
W
2 Aug
@ Cruz Azul
3–2
W
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leon – last 6
WWWWWW
26 Aug
vs Real Salt Lake
3–0
W
22 Aug
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
18 Aug
@ Necaxa
2–1
W
13 Aug
@ Inter Miami
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Orlando City SC
2–1
W
6 Aug
@ Nashville SC
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlante FC and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atlante FC vs Leon?
On our numbers Atlante FC have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leon 41%.
How many goals will there be in Atlante FC vs Leon?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlante FC vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Atlante FC 1–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atlante FC vs Leon?
Atlante FC vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banorte.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
