Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓67% · @1.50
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Puebla vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Wednesday 16 September: Puebla v Toluca in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. In the table, Puebla are 13th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
Puebla, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Necaxa, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Toluca, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 5–2 win over Atlas, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.5 for Puebla.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Puebla 0.9 xG, Toluca 2.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Puebla 14%, draw 18%, Toluca 67%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (86%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Toluca to win (67%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Puebla 0–2 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Puebla14%fair 6.98 · @4.80
Draw18%fair 5.42 · @3.90
Toluca67%fair 1.49 · @1.50
3.00Expected goals
0.86Puebla xG
2.14Toluca xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Puebla 0.9 – 2.1 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
67%
1.49
1.50
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.65
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Toluca -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Toluca to score first✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
Puebla – last 6
WLWWLL
12 Sep
@ Necaxa
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Club America
0–2
L
23 Aug
vs Santos Laguna
3–2
W
18 Aug
@ CF Pachuca
3–2
W
13 Aug
@ San Diego
2–3
L
10 Aug
@ Austin
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
WWWWWW
13 Sep
vs Atlas
5–2
W
7 Sep
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
3 Sep
vs Leon
2–0
W
31 Aug
vs FC Juarez
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs Austin
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Club Queretaro
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Puebla and Toluca.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Puebla vs Toluca?
On our numbers Puebla have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Toluca 67%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Puebla 0–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Toluca?
Puebla vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
