Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Necaxa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNecaxa to win ✗58% · @1.95
Double chanceNecaxa or draw ✗83% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.04
Necaxa vs Puebla: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Necaxa v Puebla in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Victoria. In the table, Necaxa are 17th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 16 matches; Puebla are 13th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Necaxa, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tigres UANL, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Puebla, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Club America, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 4 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Mar 2026) it ended Puebla 0–0 Necaxa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Necaxa 2.0 xG, Puebla 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Necaxa 58%, draw 25%, Puebla 17%.
Lower-risk option: Necaxa or draw (83%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Necaxa to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Necaxa or draw (83%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Necaxa 1–1 Puebla. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Necaxa58%fair 1.71 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.20
Puebla17%fair 6.02 · @3.25
3.00Expected goals
1.99Necaxa xG
1.01Puebla xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–010%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Necaxa 2.0 – 1.0 Puebla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Necaxa or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Necaxa vs Puebla?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Puebla 17%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Puebla?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Puebla?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 1–1 Puebla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Puebla?
Necaxa vs Puebla (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
