Leon 59%Draw 21%Atletico San Luis 20%Expected goals 1.85 – 0.94
80%
Betarazi pick
Leon or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Leon to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLeon to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceLeon or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12
Leon vs Atletico San Luis: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Tuesday 15 September: Leon v Atletico San Luis in the Liga MX, played at Estadio León.
Current form
Leon, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to U.N.A.M. - Pumas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico San Luis, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Guadalajara Chivas, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Leon, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Atletico San Luis.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended Atletico San Luis 1–2 Leon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leon 1.8 xG, Atletico San Luis 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leon 59%, draw 21%, Atletico San Luis 20%.
Lower-risk option: Leon or draw (80%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Leon to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Leon or draw (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leon 1–0 Atletico San Luis. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leon59%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.30
Atletico San Luis20%fair 5.09 · @3.50
2.79Expected goals
1.85Leon xG
0.94Atletico San Luis xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Leon 1.8 – 0.9 Atletico San Luis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
Our pick is Leon or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
On our numbers Leon have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico San Luis 20%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–0 Atletico San Luis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
Leon vs Atletico San Luis (Liga MX) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio León.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
