Toluca vs Santos Laguna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santos Laguna travel to face Toluca on Monday 21 September in the Liga MX, with Estadio Nemesio Diez the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; Santos Laguna are 6th (upper half) with 25. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Puebla, away. In their own stadium the record reads 5 won, 0 lost from 5. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Santos Laguna, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over FC Juarez, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.2 for Santos Laguna.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.1 xG, Santos Laguna 0.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 71%, draw 18%, Santos Laguna 11%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–1 Santos Laguna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca71%fair 1.41 · @1.18
Draw18%fair 5.47 · @6.00
Santos Laguna11%fair 9.40 · @10.00
2.69Expected goals
2.06Toluca xG
0.63Santos Laguna xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–014%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.1 – 0.6 Santos Laguna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
71%
1.41
1.18
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
89%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.70
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✗
87%
1.15
–
Asian handicap
Toluca -1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Toluca to score first
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.00
–
Recent results
Toluca – last 6
WWWWWW
16 Sep
@ Puebla
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Atlas
5–2
W
7 Sep
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
3 Sep
vs Leon
2–0
W
31 Aug
vs FC Juarez
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs Austin
2–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Santos Laguna – last 6
WLDLLW
14 Sep
vs FC Juarez
2–1
W
7 Sep
@ Cruz Azul
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Tigres UANL
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Puebla
2–3
L
17 Aug
vs Guadalajara Chivas
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Philadelphia Union
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Santos Laguna.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
On our numbers Toluca have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Santos Laguna 11%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Santos Laguna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
Toluca vs Santos Laguna (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 21 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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