Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Atlas v Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Jalisco. In the table, Atlas are 5th, upper half, on 27 points after 16 matches; Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd (among the top four) with 30. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atlas, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Club Tijuana, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Club America, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Guadalajara Chivas, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Atlas.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Mar 2026) it ended Atlas 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlas 1.0 xG, Guadalajara Chivas 2.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlas 18%, draw 21%, Guadalajara Chivas 62%.
Lower-risk option: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Guadalajara Chivas to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Guadalajara Chivas or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlas 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlas18%fair 5.69 · @3.30
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.20
Guadalajara Chivas62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
3.00Expected goals
0.98Atlas xG
2.02Guadalajara Chivas xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
0–110%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Atlas 1.0 – 2.0 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Atlas have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Guadalajara Chivas 62%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Atlas 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
