Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗63% · @1.80
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 18 October the Liga MX brings Guadalajara Chivas against Tigres UANL at Estadio Akron. Kick-off: 00:07 WAT. In the table, Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd, among the top four, on 30 points after 16 matches; Tigres UANL are 15th (lower half) with 15. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atlas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tigres UANL, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Toluca, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (10 May 2026) it ended Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Tigres UANL. The last 3 head-to-heads: Guadalajara Chivas 1 win, Tigres UANL 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.7 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guadalajara Chivas 1.8 xG, Tigres UANL 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guadalajara Chivas 63%, draw 21%, Tigres UANL 15%.
Lower-risk option: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Guadalajara Chivas to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Guadalajara Chivas or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Tigres UANL. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guadalajara Chivas63%fair 1.58 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.30
Tigres UANL15%fair 6.64 · @3.75
2.59Expected goals
1.84Guadalajara Chivas xG
0.75Tigres UANL xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Guadalajara Chivas 1.8 – 0.8 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Guadalajara Chivas have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tigres UANL 15%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 00:07 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leon3