Botev Plovdiv 60%Draw 23%Lokomotiv Sofia 17%Expected goals 2.13 – 1.03
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Botev Plovdiv to win @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBotev Plovdiv to win ✗60% · @1.77
Double chanceBotev Plovdiv or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv Sofia travel to face Botev Plovdiv on Tuesday 21 July in the First League, with Stadion Hristo Botev the venue – the ball rolls at 19:30 WAT. In the table, Botev Plovdiv are 5th, upper half, on 23 points after 14 matches; Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th (in the drop zone) with 9. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Botev Plovdiv, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Beroe, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 5 won, 1 lost from 6. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Lokomotiv Sofia, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Teuta Durrës, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Botev Plovdiv, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Botev Plovdiv 2.1 xG, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Botev Plovdiv 60%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Sofia 17%.
Lower-risk option: Botev Plovdiv or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Botev Plovdiv to win @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Lokomotiv Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Botev Plovdiv60%fair 1.66 · @1.77
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.60
Lokomotiv Sofia17%fair 5.85 · @3.90
3.16Expected goals
2.13Botev Plovdiv xG
1.03Lokomotiv Sofia xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Botev Plovdiv 2.1 – 1.0 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botev Plovdiv to win✗
60%
1.66
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Botev Plovdiv or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.67
Draw no bet
Botev Plovdiv (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Botev Plovdiv -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Botev Plovdiv to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Botev Plovdiv ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botev Plovdiv / FT Botev Plovdiv✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Botev Plovdiv – last 6
WWLWWW
12 Jul
vs Beroe
4–0
W
4 Jul
vs Spartak Varna
1–0
W
4 Jul
vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1–2
L
1 Jul
vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
4–0
W
26 Jun
vs Arda Kardzhali
2–1
W
23 Jun
vs Spartak Pleven
4–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv Sofia – last 6
DDLWDD
11 Jul
vs Teuta Durrës
0–0
D
4 Jul
vs Dukagjini
3–3
D
22 May
@ Spartak Varna
0–3
L
18 May
vs Slavia Sofia
2–0
W
14 May
vs Beroe
1–1
D
9 May
@ Montana
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Sofia.
What is the prediction for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
On our numbers Botev Plovdiv have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lokomotiv Sofia 17%.
How many goals will there be in Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our predicted score is Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Lokomotiv Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Hristo Botev.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
