Cherno More Varna 59%Draw 21%Lokomotiv Sofia 20%Expected goals 2.04 – 1.09
80%
Betarazi pick
Cherno More Varna or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Cherno More Varna to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Friday 11 September: Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv Sofia in the First League, played at Ticha. In the table, Cherno More Varna are 9th, lower half, on 13 points after 14 matches; Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Cherno More Varna, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lokomotiv Plovdiv, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Lokomotiv Sofia, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ludogorets, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cherno More Varna 2.0 xG, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cherno More Varna 59%, draw 21%, Lokomotiv Sofia 20%.
Lower-risk option: Cherno More Varna or draw (80%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Cherno More Varna to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cherno More Varna or draw (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cherno More Varna 2–1 Lokomotiv Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cherno More Varna59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.20
Lokomotiv Sofia20%fair 5.12 · @3.40
3.13Expected goals
2.04Cherno More Varna xG
1.09Lokomotiv Sofia xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 2.0 – 1.1 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cherno More Varna to win✗
59%
1.69
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Cherno More Varna or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Draw no bet
Cherno More Varna (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Lokomotiv Sofia +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
First team to score
Cherno More Varna to score first✓
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Cherno More Varna ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cherno More Varna / FT Cherno More Varna✗
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Cherno More Varna – last 6
LLWLLL
6 Sep
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ CSKA Sofia
1–3
L
21 Aug
vs Dunav Ruse
3–1
W
14 Aug
@ CSKA 1948
1–4
L
9 Aug
vs Ludogorets
2–3
L
1 Aug
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv Sofia – last 6
LDLLDL
6 Sep
vs Ludogorets
1–2
L
31 Aug
@ Dunav Ruse
2–2
D
17 Aug
@ Arda Kardzhali
1–3
L
8 Aug
vs CSKA 1948
1–3
L
31 Jul
@ Slavia Sofia
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Levski Sofia
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our pick is Cherno More Varna or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lokomotiv Sofia 20%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 2–1 Lokomotiv Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia (First League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Ticha.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
