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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Spartak Varna v Arda Kardzhali: numbers & prediction

First League · Bulgaria · Stadion Spartak
3–2
FT
Spartak Varna 31%Draw 23%Arda Kardzhali 46% Expected goals 1.13 – 1.45
75%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.22Odds
1

Value bet: Spartak Varna to win @ 3.75 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultArda Kardzhali to win ✗46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.11

Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Arda Kardzhali travel to face Spartak Varna on Sunday 8 November in the First League, with Stadion Spartak the venue – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT. In the table, Spartak Varna are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 14 matches; Arda Kardzhali are 6th (upper half) with 21.

Current form

Spartak Varna, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 1–6 defeat to CSKA 1948, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Arda Kardzhali, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Septemvri Sofia, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (27 Feb 2026) it ended Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Spartak Varna.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Spartak Varna 1.1 xG, Arda Kardzhali 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Spartak Varna 31%, draw 23%, Arda Kardzhali 46%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.91.
  • Price worth noting: Spartak Varna to win @3.75 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 31%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spartak Varna 1–1 Arda Kardzhali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Spartak Varna31%fair 3.22 · @3.75
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.25
Arda Kardzhali46%fair 2.18 · @2.05
2.58Expected goals
1.13Spartak Varna xG
1.45Arda Kardzhali xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%

From our goals model: Spartak Varna 1.1 – 1.4 Arda Kardzhali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultArda Kardzhali to win ✗46%2.182.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.33
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓55%1.831.91
Draw no betArda Kardzhali (draw no bet) ✗60%1.68–
Asian handicapSpartak Varna +1 (Asian handicap) ✓72%1.39–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.411.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗55%1.831.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75%1.331.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗89%1.131.07
First team to scoreArda Kardzhali to score first52%1.93–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT Arda Kardzhali / FT Arda Kardzhali ✗26%3.82–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.11–

Recent results

Spartak Varna – last 6

LLWWLD
30 Oct@ CSKA 19481–6L
24 Oct@ Dunav Ruse0–2L
19 Oct@ Etar Veliko Tarnovo4–2W
10 Oct@ Botev Vratsa1–0W
20 Sepvs Lokomotiv Sofia0–1L
13 Sep@ Slavia Sofia0–0D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Arda Kardzhali – last 6

WDWLLD
2 Novvs Septemvri Sofia2–1W
27 Octvs Levski Sofia1–1D
18 Oct@ Spartak Plovdiv2–1W
12 Oct@ Ludogorets0–5L
2 Oct@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–2L
19 Sepvs Cherno More Varna1–1D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

27 Feb 2026Arda Kardzhali v Spartak Varna1–0
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head page →

First League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1CSKA Sofia141040+2334
2Levski Sofia131021+1732
3Ludogorets13931+1530
4CSKA 194814923+1729
5Botev Plovdiv14725+223
6Arda Kardzhali14635-221
7Spartak Varna14446-1016
8Slavia Sofia14284014
9Cherno More Varna14347-813
10Dunav Ruse14338-712
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv14338-1012
12Septemvri Sofia14329-1311
13Botev Vratsa14248-1310
14Lokomotiv Sofia14167-119

More First League predictions

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arda Kardzhali 46%.

How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Our predicted score is Spartak Varna 1–1 Arda Kardzhali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali (First League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.