Value bet: Almeria to win @ 3.45 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMalaga to win ✗41% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.61
Malaga vs Almeria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Almeria travel to face Malaga on Sunday 14 June in the Segunda División, with Estadio La Rosaleda the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Malaga, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Las Palmas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Almeria, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Castellón, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Malaga 1.4 xG, Almeria 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Malaga 41%, draw 28%, Almeria 31%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Almeria to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Malaga 1–1 Almeria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Malaga41%fair 2.44 · @2.22
Draw28%fair 3.62 · @3.05
Almeria31%fair 3.18 · @3.45
2.78Expected goals
1.44Malaga xG
1.34Almeria xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Malaga 1.4 – 1.3 Almeria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Malaga
Almeria
Attack vs Segunda División average
+5%
+32%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
-26%
Our expected goals here
1.23
1.28
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malaga to win✗
41%
2.44
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.62
Draw no bet
Malaga (draw no bet)
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Almeria +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.12
First team to score
Malaga to score first✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malaga / FT Malaga✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.61
–
Recent results
Malaga – last 6
DWWDDW
10 Jun
vs Las Palmas
1–1
D
7 Jun
@ Las Palmas
1–0
W
31 May
@ Zaragoza
2–0
W
24 May
vs Racing Santander
1–1
D
1 Apr
@ FC Andorra
3–3
D
15 Mar
vs Huesca
5–3
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Almeria – last 6
WDWLWW
9 Jun
vs Castellón
3–2
W
6 Jun
@ Castellón
1–1
D
31 May
vs Valladolid
1–0
W
24 May
@ Sporting Gijon
1–3
L
4 May
vs Mirandes
4–2
W
5 Apr
vs Leganes
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malaga and Almeria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Malaga vs Almeria?
On our numbers Malaga have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Almeria 31%.
How many goals will there be in Malaga vs Almeria?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malaga vs Almeria?
Our predicted score is Malaga 1–1 Almeria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Malaga vs Almeria?
Malaga vs Almeria (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Rosaleda.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
