Ajax vs Willem II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Willem II travel to face Ajax on Tuesday 15 September in the Eredivisie, with Johan Cruijff Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; Willem II are 18th (in the drop zone) with 3. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ajax, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Fortuna Sittard, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.5 goals per game.
Willem II, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with AZ Alkmaar, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ajax, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Willem II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 3.0 xG, Willem II 0.9 xG – a total near 3.9. That is an open game on paper: 75% for three or more goals, 58% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 76%, draw 18%, Willem II 6%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–1 Willem II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax76%fair 1.32 · @1.11
Draw18%fair 5.60 · @9.00
Willem II6%fair 15.82 · @17.00
3.90Expected goals
2.96Ajax xG
0.94Willem II xG
58%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–09%
3–09%
2–18%
3–18%
4–07%
4–16%
From our goals model: Ajax 3.0 – 0.9 Willem II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
76%
1.32
1.11
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)✓
92%
1.08
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
First team to score
Ajax to score first✓
74%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
55%
1.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.02
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 6
WLWWWD
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs FC Sion
5–3
W
20 Aug
@ FC Sion
4–2
W
16 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
3.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Willem II – last 6
DLDLLW
11 Sep
@ AZ Alkmaar
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Excelsior
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Willem II.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Ajax vs Willem II?
On our numbers Ajax have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Willem II 6%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Willem II?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Willem II?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 Willem II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax vs Willem II (Eredivisie) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
