Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.77 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✗75% · @1.16
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓92% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.77
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 12.15
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Willem II travel to face AZ Alkmaar on Friday 11 September in the Eredivisie, with AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, AZ Alkmaar are 5th, upper half, on 23 points after 12 matches; Willem II are 18th (in the drop zone) with 3. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
AZ Alkmaar, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Heerenveen, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.3 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Willem II, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Excelsior, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours AZ Alkmaar, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.2 for Willem II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AZ Alkmaar 3.0 xG, Willem II 1.0 xG – a total near 4.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AZ Alkmaar 75%, draw 17%, Willem II 8%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Willem II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AZ Alkmaar75%fair 1.34 · @1.16
Draw17%fair 5.77 · @7.30
Willem II8%fair 12.73 · @14.50
4.06Expected goals
3.02AZ Alkmaar xG
1.05Willem II xG
62%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–18%
2–18%
3–08%
2–08%
4–16%
4–06%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 3.0 – 1.0 Willem II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✗
75%
1.34
1.16
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.77 ▲
Draw no bet
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)
90%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
AZ Alkmaar -1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.50
First team to score
AZ Alkmaar to score first✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✓
58%
1.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
54%
1.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.15
–
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
WWWWWW
6 Sep
@ Heerenveen
3–2
W
29 Aug
vs GO Ahead Eagles
5–2
W
22 Aug
@ Fortuna Sittard
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Utrecht
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs ADO Den Haag
2–0
W
2 Aug
@ PSV Eindhoven
4–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Willem II – last 6
LDLLWW
5 Sep
vs Excelsior
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs KV Mechelen
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Willem II 8%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Willem II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II (Eredivisie) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
