Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultHeerenveen to win ✓64% · @1.65
Double chanceHeerenveen or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Heerenveen welcome Excelsior to Abe Lenstra Stadion for a Eredivisie fixture on Friday 16 October (19:00 WAT). In the table, Heerenveen are 6th, upper half, on 21 points after 12 matches; Excelsior are 15th (lower half) with 11.
Current form
Heerenveen, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to PSV Eindhoven, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Excelsior, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Groningen, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Heerenveen 2.2 xG, Excelsior 1.0 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Heerenveen 64%, draw 20%, Excelsior 16%.
Lower-risk option: Heerenveen or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Heerenveen to win (64%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Heerenveen64%fair 1.56 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 5.00 · @3.90
Excelsior16%fair 6.32 · @4.50
3.25Expected goals
2.23Heerenveen xG
1.02Excelsior xG
61%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Heerenveen 2.2 – 1.0 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heerenveen to win✓
64%
1.56
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Heerenveen or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.44
Draw no bet
Heerenveen (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Heerenveen -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
First team to score
Heerenveen to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Heerenveen ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heerenveen / FT Heerenveen✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Heerenveen – last 6
LWDLDL
9 Oct
@ PSV Eindhoven
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Sparta Rotterdam
4–0
W
13 Sep
vs Telstar
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs AZ Alkmaar
2–3
L
30 Aug
@ Willem II
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs PEC Zwolle
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 6
LDLDWW
11 Oct
vs Groningen
1–5
L
19 Sep
@ Ajax
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Utrecht
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Willem II
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heerenveen and Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our pick is Heerenveen to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Heerenveen have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Excelsior 16%.
How many goals will there be in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Heerenveen vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
