Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Marseille to win @ 1.67 – our chance 65% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMarseille to win ✓65% · @1.67
Double chanceMarseille or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Marseille vs Strasbourg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 21 August the Ligue 1 brings Marseille against Strasbourg at CEPAC Vélodrome. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Marseille are 4th, among the top four, on 18 points after 10 matches; Strasbourg are 13th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Marseille, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Madrid, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 1 lost from 5. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Strasbourg, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Newcastle, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Marseille, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.2 for Strasbourg.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marseille 2.2 xG, Strasbourg 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marseille 65%, draw 20%, Strasbourg 14%.
Lower-risk option: Marseille or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Marseille to win @1.67 – the bookmaker implies 60%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Marseille or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marseille 2–0 Strasbourg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marseille65%fair 1.53 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @4.20
Strasbourg14%fair 7.09 · @4.35
3.14Expected goals
2.20Marseille xG
0.94Strasbourg xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.2 – 0.9 Strasbourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
65%
1.53
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Marseille or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.55
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Marseille -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
First team to score
Marseille to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✗
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Marseille – last 6
LWWWWL
14 Aug
vs Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Athletic Club
3–1
W
30 Jul
vs Nimes
2–1
W
17 May
vs Rennes
3–1
W
10 Apr
vs Metz
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Monaco
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Strasbourg – last 6
DLLLLL
16 Aug
@ Newcastle
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ SC Freiburg
0–2
L
4 Aug
vs SV Elversberg
2–5
L
1 Aug
@ Brighton
3–4
L
25 Jul
vs Blackburn
0–2
L
20 Jul
@ Sporting CP
0–7
L
1.0Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Strasbourg.
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Our pick is Marseille or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Marseille vs Strasbourg?
On our numbers Marseille have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Strasbourg 14%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Strasbourg?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–0 Strasbourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Marseille vs Strasbourg (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at CEPAC Vélodrome.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
