Value bet: Lille to win @ 2.12 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLille to win ✓51% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.48
Toulouse vs Lille: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lille travel to face Toulouse on Thursday 3 September in the Ligue 1, with Stadium de Toulouse the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Toulouse are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Lille are 2nd (among the top four) with 21.
Current form
Toulouse, last 5: DLLWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Stade Brestois 29, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Lille, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Paris Saint Germain, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.
Momentum favours Lille, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Toulouse.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toulouse 1.1 xG, Lille 1.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toulouse 27%, draw 23%, Lille 51%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Lille to win @2.12 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toulouse 1–1 Lille. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toulouse27%fair 3.73 · @3.35
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.30
Lille51%fair 1.98 · @2.12
2.76Expected goals
1.12Toulouse xG
1.64Lille xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Toulouse 1.1 – 1.6 Lille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lille to win✓
51%
1.98
2.12 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Lille (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.53
–
Asian handicap
Toulouse +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Lille to score first✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lille / FT Lille✗
30%
3.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.48
–
Recent results
Toulouse – last 6
DLLWDL
29 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Lyon
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
31 Jul
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Rodez
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Lens
1–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lille – last 6
DWDDWW
28 Aug
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Angers
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Everton
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Hamburger SV
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ OH Leuven
6–3
W
18 Jul
vs RAAL La Louvière
3–0
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toulouse and Lille.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lille?
On our numbers Toulouse have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lille 51%.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Lille?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our predicted score is Toulouse 1–1 Lille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse vs Lille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadium de Toulouse.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
