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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

FBC Melgar v UCV Moquegua: numbers & prediction

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FBC Melgar

LWDWL
0–0
FT

UCV Moquegua

WLLLL
FBC Melgar 44%Draw 26%UCV Moquegua 30% Expected goals 2.02 – 1.24
58%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.80Odds
1

Value bet: FBC Melgar to win @ 2.75 – our chance 44% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultFBC Melgar to win ✗44% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30

FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

UCV Moquegua travel to face FBC Melgar on Monday 29 June in the – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.

Current form

FBC Melgar, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Tacna Heroica, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

UCV Moquegua, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Bentín Tacna Heroica, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours FBC Melgar, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for UCV Moquegua.

Head to head

When they last met (16 Feb 2026) it ended FBC Melgar 4–0 UCV Moquegua.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FBC Melgar 2.0 xG, UCV Moquegua 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 51% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – FBC Melgar 44%, draw 26%, UCV Moquegua 30%.
  • Price worth noting: FBC Melgar to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 44%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (58%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.72, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FBC Melgar 2–1 UCV Moquegua. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FBC Melgar44%fair 2.28 · @2.75
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.10
UCV Moquegua30%fair 3.29 · @2.50
3.26Expected goals
2.02FBC Melgar xG
1.24UCV Moquegua xG
51%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
1–110%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%

From our goals model: FBC Melgar 2.0 – 1.2 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFBC Melgar to win ✗44%2.282.75 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74%1.351.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.95–
Draw no betFBC Melgar (draw no bet)59%1.69–
Asian handicapUCV Moquegua +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓67%1.49–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84%1.19–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗58%1.721.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓59%1.70–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓77%1.30–
First team to scoreFBC Melgar to score first ✗60%1.68–
Half-time resultFBC Melgar ahead at half-time ✗42%2.40–
Half-time / full-timeHT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar ✗35%2.86–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.30–

Recent results

FBC Melgar – last 6

LWDWLW
12 Jun@ Tacna Heroica2–3L
31 Mayvs Alianza Atletico3–1W
22 May@ Juan Pablo II College1–1D
4 Mayvs UTC Cajamarca2–0W
28 Apr@ Deportivo Garcilaso0–1L
19 Aprvs Universitario2–1W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

UCV Moquegua – last 6

WLLLLW
21 Junvs Bentín Tacna Heroica3–2W
29 May@ Atletico Grau0–1L
17 May@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas0–1L
3 May@ Alianza Lima1–2L
20 Apr@ Cienciano1–2L
14 Aprvs Juan Pablo II College3–0W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

16 Feb 2026FBC Melgar v UCV Moquegua4–0
FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head page →

More predictions

FT Cusco1 Cienciano2 133%3.00X25%3.25242%2.10 1.3–1.4xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 53%@1.62 ✗
FT Deportivo Garcilaso4 Deportivo Binacional1 168%1.75X17%3.50215%3.90 2.8–0.9xG 1Deportivo Garcilaso to win 68%@1.75 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?

On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and UCV Moquegua 30%.

How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?

Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 2–1 UCV Moquegua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua?

FBC Melgar vs UCV Moquegua () kicks off on Monday 29 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.