La Luz 40%Draw 28%Cerrito 32%Expected goals 1.25 – 1.08
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLa Luz to win ✓40% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.20
La Luz vs Cerrito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 21 June the Segunda División brings La Luz against Cerrito. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, La Luz are 9th, lower half, on 34 points after 25 matches; Cerrito are 8th (lower half) with 34. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
La Luz, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Atenas, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Cerrito, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 4–6 defeat to CA River Plate, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Cerrito, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for La Luz.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Apr 2026) it ended Cerrito 0–0 La Luz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give La Luz 1.2 xG, Cerrito 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – La Luz 40%, draw 28%, Cerrito 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: La Luz 1–1 Cerrito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
La Luz40%fair 2.51 · @2.30
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.10
Cerrito32%fair 3.08 · @2.95
2.33Expected goals
1.25La Luz xG
1.08Cerrito xG
56%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: La Luz 1.2 – 1.1 Cerrito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
La Luz
Cerrito
Attack vs Segunda División average
-6%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.18
1.00
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win La Luz vs Cerrito?
On our numbers La Luz have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Cerrito 32%.
How many goals will there be in La Luz vs Cerrito?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Luz vs Cerrito?
Our predicted score is La Luz 1–1 Cerrito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is La Luz vs Cerrito?
La Luz vs Cerrito (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
