Value bet: Naftagas to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNaftagas to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.92
Naftagas vs Napredak: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Napredak travel to face Naftagas on Sunday 11 October in the Prva Liga, with Gradski stadion the venue – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT. In the table, Naftagas are 9th, lower half, on 22 points after 17 matches; Napredak are 7th (upper half) with 25. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Naftagas, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 6–0 win over FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Napredak, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Loznica, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Naftagas 1.4 xG, Napredak 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Naftagas 44%, draw 23%, Napredak 33%.
Price worth noting: Naftagas to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (55%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Naftagas 1–1 Napredak. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Naftagas44%fair 2.26 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.10
Napredak33%fair 3.04 · @2.55
2.50Expected goals
1.37Naftagas xG
1.13Napredak xG
48%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Naftagas 1.4 – 1.1 Napredak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naftagas to win✗
44%
2.26
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
–
Draw no bet
Naftagas (draw no bet)
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Napredak +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Naftagas to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naftagas / FT Naftagas✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.92
–
Recent results
Naftagas – last 6
WWLDDD
4 Oct
@ FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
6–0
W
28 Sep
vs Jedinstvo Ub
3–0
W
21 Sep
@ Javor
2–4
L
16 Sep
vs TSC Backa Topola
1–1
D
10 Sep
@ Teleoptik
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Metalac GM
0–0
D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Napredak – last 6
WDLLLW
5 Oct
vs Loznica
3–0
W
29 Sep
@ FK Vozdovac
0–0
D
21 Sep
vs Semendrija 1924
1–4
L
16 Sep
vs OFK Vršac
1–2
L
11 Sep
@ FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Jedinstvo Ub
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naftagas and Napredak.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Naftagas vs Napredak?
On our numbers Naftagas have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Napredak 33%.
How many goals will there be in Naftagas vs Napredak?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naftagas vs Napredak?
Our predicted score is Naftagas 1–1 Napredak, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Naftagas vs Napredak?
Naftagas vs Napredak (Prva Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
