FC Luzern vs FC Thun: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 25 July the Super League brings FC Luzern against FC Thun at Thermoplan Arena. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, FC Luzern are 9th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; FC Thun are 8th (lower half) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
FC Luzern, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to St. Truiden, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
FC Thun, last 5: DLDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Dinamo Zagreb, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours FC Luzern, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for FC Thun.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Luzern 2.1 xG, FC Thun 1.6 xG – a total near 3.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 69% and GG at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Luzern 52%, draw 19%, FC Thun 28%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.36.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Luzern 2–1 FC Thun. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Luzern52%fair 1.91 · @1.95
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @3.95
FC Thun28%fair 3.53 · @3.25
3.67Expected goals
2.09FC Luzern xG
1.57FC Thun xG
67%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
2–27%
1–27%
3–16%
2–06%
From our goals model: FC Luzern 2.1 – 1.6 FC Thun expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Luzern to win✗
52%
1.91
1.95
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.49
1.36
Draw no bet
FC Luzern (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
FC Thun +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
First team to score
FC Luzern to score first
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
FC Luzern ahead at half-time✗
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Luzern / FT FC Luzern✗
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
FC Luzern – last 6
LWWWWL
18 Jul
vs St. Truiden
1–2
L
10 Jul
@ FC WIL 1900
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs FC Winterthur
3–2
W
27 Jun
vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3–2
W
12 May
vs FC Zurich
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Servette FC
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FC Thun – last 6
DLDDLW
21 Jul
vs Dinamo Zagreb
1–1
D
11 Jul
vs Waldhof Mannheim
1–2
L
11 Jul
vs SV Elversberg
1–1
D
17 May
@ FC ST. Gallen
1–1
D
14 May
vs BSC Young Boys
3–8
L
8 Mar
@ BSC Young Boys
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Luzern and FC Thun.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
On our numbers FC Luzern have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 19% and FC Thun 28%.
How many goals will there be in FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
Our predicted score is FC Luzern 2–1 FC Thun, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
FC Luzern vs FC Thun (Super League) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Thermoplan Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
