Value bet: FC Lugano to win @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFC Lugano to win ✓58% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.08
FC Thun vs FC Lugano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 25 October the Super League brings FC Thun against FC Lugano at Cornaredo. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, FC Thun are 8th, lower half, on 14 points after 13 matches; FC Lugano are 1st (leading the league) with 34. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FC Thun, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to HNK Hajduk Split, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
FC Lugano, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 5–2 win over Getafe, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours FC Lugano, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for FC Thun.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Thun 1.6 xG, FC Lugano 2.5 xG – a total near 4.1. That is an open game on paper: 78% for three or more goals, 70% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Thun 25%, draw 16%, FC Lugano 58%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: FC Lugano to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (70%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Thun 1–2 FC Lugano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Thun25%fair 3.95 · @3.40
Draw16%fair 6.11 · @4.00
FC Lugano58%fair 1.72 · @1.83
4.10Expected goals
1.61FC Thun xG
2.49FC Lugano xG
70%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
1–37%
2–27%
1–17%
2–36%
2–15%
From our goals model: FC Thun 1.6 – 2.5 FC Lugano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Lugano to win✓
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Draw no bet
FC Lugano (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
FC Thun +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
First team to score
FC Lugano to score first
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
FC Lugano ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Lugano / FT FC Lugano✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.08
–
Recent results
FC Thun – last 6
LDLLWW
22 Oct
vs HNK Hajduk Split
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ FC Schaffhausen
1–1
D
15 Oct
@ Twente
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ FC Zurich
2–4
L
3 Oct
vs SC Kriens
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Vaduz
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FC Lugano – last 6
WWWWLW
22 Oct
@ Getafe
5–2
W
18 Oct
@ Pully Football
4–0
W
15 Oct
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
3–2
W
10 Oct
vs FC Luzern
4–0
W
2 Oct
vs Hellas Verona
1–3
L
20 Sep
@ Lausanne
4–0
W
3.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Thun and FC Lugano.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
On our numbers FC Thun have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 16% and FC Lugano 58%.
How many goals will there be in FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
Our predicted score is FC Thun 1–2 FC Lugano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
FC Thun vs FC Lugano (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Cornaredo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
