Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Avispa Fukuoka to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAvispa Fukuoka to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceAvispa Fukuoka or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 5 September the J1 League brings Avispa Fukuoka against Mito Hollyhock at Best Denki Stadium. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, Avispa Fukuoka are 10th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 18 matches; Mito Hollyhock are 9th (in the drop zone) with 18. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Avispa Fukuoka, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Urawa, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Mito Hollyhock, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Kashima, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mito Hollyhock, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Avispa Fukuoka.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Avispa Fukuoka 2.0 xG, Mito Hollyhock 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 50% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Avispa Fukuoka 59%, draw 25%, Mito Hollyhock 16%.
Lower-risk option: Avispa Fukuoka or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Avispa Fukuoka to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Avispa Fukuoka or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Mito Hollyhock. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Avispa Fukuoka59%fair 1.68 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.30
Mito Hollyhock16%fair 6.37 · @3.90
2.91Expected goals
1.97Avispa Fukuoka xG
0.94Mito Hollyhock xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Avispa Fukuoka 2.0 – 0.9 Mito Hollyhock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Avispa Fukuoka to win✗
59%
1.68
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Avispa Fukuoka or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Avispa Fukuoka (draw no bet)
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Avispa Fukuoka -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.07
First team to score
Avispa Fukuoka to score first
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Avispa Fukuoka ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Avispa Fukuoka / FT Avispa Fukuoka✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
Avispa Fukuoka – last 6
LLDLWL
2 Sep
vs Urawa
2–3
L
29 Aug
@ Kyoto Sanga
1–2
L
26 Aug
vs Verspah Oita
0–0
D
22 Aug
@ Kashima
2–3
L
15 Aug
vs Cerezo Osaka
3–0
W
8 Aug
vs Vissel Kobe
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mito Hollyhock – last 6
WDLWDL
2 Sep
vs Kashima
4–2
W
29 Aug
vs Machida Zelvia
1–1
D
26 Aug
vs Kyoto Sangyo University
0–2
L
22 Aug
@ Kyoto Sanga
3–1
W
15 Aug
vs Gamba Osaka
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Kashiwa Reysol
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avispa Fukuoka and Mito Hollyhock.
What is the prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our pick is Avispa Fukuoka or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
On our numbers Avispa Fukuoka have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mito Hollyhock 16%.
How many goals will there be in Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our predicted score is Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Mito Hollyhock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Best Denki Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
