Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Machida Zelvia to win @ 1.83 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMachida Zelvia to win ✓63% · @1.83
Double chanceMachida Zelvia or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Avispa Fukuoka travel to face Machida Zelvia on Sunday 18 October in the J1 League, with Machida GION Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 08:00 WAT. In the table, Machida Zelvia are 3rd, among the top four, on 37 points after 18 matches; Avispa Fukuoka are 10th (in the drop zone) with 21. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Machida Zelvia, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Tampines Rovers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Avispa Fukuoka, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sagan Tosu, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Machida Zelvia, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Avispa Fukuoka.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Machida Zelvia 2.1 xG, Avispa Fukuoka 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 53% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Machida Zelvia 63%, draw 21%, Avispa Fukuoka 16%.
Lower-risk option: Machida Zelvia or draw (84%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Machida Zelvia to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Machida Zelvia or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Machida Zelvia 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Machida Zelvia63%fair 1.59 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.30
Avispa Fukuoka16%fair 6.08 · @4.20
3.11Expected goals
2.12Machida Zelvia xG
0.99Avispa Fukuoka xG
53%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Machida Zelvia 2.1 – 1.0 Avispa Fukuoka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Machida Zelvia to win✓
63%
1.59
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Machida Zelvia or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.83
Draw no bet
Machida Zelvia (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Machida Zelvia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
First team to score
Machida Zelvia to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Machida Zelvia ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Machida Zelvia / FT Machida Zelvia✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Machida Zelvia – last 6
WWDWLW
15 Oct
@ Tampines Rovers
1–0
W
10 Oct
@ Kyoto Sanga
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Kyoto Sanga
0–0
D
23 Sep
vs Tochigi City
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–4
L
17 Sep
vs Svay Rieng
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Avispa Fukuoka – last 6
LWLDLL
14 Oct
@ Sagan Tosu
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs Fagiano Okayama
2–1
W
7 Oct
vs Yokohama FC
0–1
L
29 Sep
@ Osaka
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Shimizu S-pulse
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka.
What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our pick is Machida Zelvia or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
On our numbers Machida Zelvia have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Avispa Fukuoka 16%.
How many goals will there be in Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our predicted score is Machida Zelvia 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Machida GION Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fagiano Okayama0
Vissel Kobe3