Lexington W 59%Draw 23%Tampa Bay Sun W 18%Expected goals 1.74 – 0.85
82%
Betarazi pick
Lexington W or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Lexington W to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLexington W to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceLexington W or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.35
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tampa Bay Sun W travel to face Lexington W on Sunday 18 October in the USL Super League, with Toyota Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Lexington W are 5th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Tampa Bay Sun W are 7th (in the drop zone) with 10.
Current form
Lexington W, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Fort Lauderdale United W, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Tampa Bay Sun W, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Carolina Ascent W, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (4 Oct 2026) it ended Tampa Bay Sun W 1–1 Lexington W.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington W 1.7 xG, Tampa Bay Sun W 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington W 59%, draw 23%, Tampa Bay Sun W 18%.
Lower-risk option: Lexington W or draw (82%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Lexington W to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lexington W or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington W 1–0 Tampa Bay Sun W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington W59%fair 1.70 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.40
Tampa Bay Sun W18%fair 5.44 · @3.60
2.60Expected goals
1.74Lexington W xG
0.85Tampa Bay Sun W xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lexington W 1.7 – 0.9 Tampa Bay Sun W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W?
Our pick is Lexington W or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W?
On our numbers Lexington W have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tampa Bay Sun W 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W?
Our predicted score is Lexington W 1–0 Tampa Bay Sun W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W?
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W (USL Super League) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
