Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Newcastle to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeeds to win ✓40% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.37
Leeds vs Newcastle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Monday 14 September: Leeds v Newcastle in the Premier League, played at Elland Road. In the table, Leeds are 9th, upper half, on 14 points after 10 matches; Newcastle are 12th (lower half) with 12. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Leeds, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 3–6 defeat to Chelsea, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Newcastle, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Millwall, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leeds 1.3 xG, Newcastle 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leeds 40%, draw 22%, Newcastle 39%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Newcastle to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leeds 1–1 Newcastle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leeds40%fair 2.52 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
Newcastle39%fair 2.59 · @2.90
2.50Expected goals
1.26Leeds xG
1.24Newcastle xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leeds 1.3 – 1.2 Newcastle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leeds to win✓
40%
2.52
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.65
Draw no bet
Leeds (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Newcastle +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Leeds to score first✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leeds / FT Leeds✓
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.37
–
Recent results
Leeds – last 6
LDDWWW
9 Sep
@ Chelsea
3–6
L
5 Sep
@ Brighton
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Brentford
1–1
D
25 Aug
@ Nottingham Forest
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Nottingham Forest
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs FC Augsburg
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Newcastle – last 6
WDWWDD
8 Sep
@ Millwall
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Bournemouth
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–0
W
26 Aug
vs West Brom
3–2
W
23 Aug
vs Liverpool
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Strasbourg
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leeds and Newcastle.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Leeds vs Newcastle?
On our numbers Leeds have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Newcastle 39%.
How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Newcastle?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Newcastle?
Our predicted score is Leeds 1–1 Newcastle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Leeds vs Newcastle?
Leeds vs Newcastle (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Elland Road.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
