Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: Newcastle to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNewcastle to win ✗50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Coventry vs Newcastle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 12 October the Premier League brings Coventry against Newcastle at Coventry Building Society Arena. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Coventry are 17th, lower half, on 9 points after 10 matches; Newcastle are 12th (lower half) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Coventry, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Nottingham Forest, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Newcastle, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Hull City, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Newcastle, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Coventry.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Coventry 1.2 xG, Newcastle 1.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Coventry 28%, draw 21%, Newcastle 50%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Newcastle to win @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Coventry 1–1 Newcastle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Coventry28%fair 3.52 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.50
Newcastle50%fair 1.99 · @2.15
2.90Expected goals
1.20Coventry xG
1.70Newcastle xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Coventry 1.2 – 1.7 Newcastle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✗
50%
1.99
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.60
Draw no bet
Newcastle (draw no bet)✗
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Coventry +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Newcastle to score first✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
30%
3.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.49
–
Recent results
Coventry – last 6
WLLLLW
19 Sep
@ Nottingham Forest
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Brighton
0–5
L
5 Sep
@ Manchester City
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Hull City
0–1
L
25 Aug
@ Plymouth
4–2
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Newcastle – last 6
WLWDWW
19 Sep
vs Hull City
2–1
W
14 Sep
@ Leeds
1–4
L
8 Sep
@ Millwall
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Bournemouth
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–0
W
26 Aug
vs West Brom
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coventry and Newcastle.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Coventry vs Newcastle?
On our numbers Coventry have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Newcastle 50%.
How many goals will there be in Coventry vs Newcastle?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coventry vs Newcastle?
Our predicted score is Coventry 1–1 Newcastle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Coventry vs Newcastle?
Coventry vs Newcastle (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Coventry Building Society Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
